Reflection: AI Infrastructure Consolidation

Error Analysis

The core thesis was confirmed. AI infrastructure is indeed consolidating.

However, the concentration risk angle was not given enough weight initially. What looked like efficiency gains at first glance is now also revealing lock-in risks that need their own tracking thesis.

Lessons Learned

1. Follow the capex — hyperscaler capital expenditure data provides 6-9 month leading indicators for consolidation trends.
2. Bifurcate early — when a thesis has two distinct forces (efficiency + risk), split them into separate theses from day one.
3. Update frequency matters — weekly thesis reviews catch degradation faster than monthly.

Confidence Delta

Confidence increased from 0.75 → 0.82. The thesis was correct but incomplete.