Active Theses
Emerging
Personal Intelligence Engine Thesis
Emerging Confidence: Moderate Confidence (78%)
The shift from AI News Agent to Personal Intelligence Engine is validated by the complete cognitive pipeline now in place.
Developing
AI Infrastructure Consolidation Thesis
Developing Confidence: High Confidence (82%)
Infrastructure value is consolidating around a small number of vertically integrated providers, creating both efficiency gains and concentration risk.
Application Layer > Model Layer
Developing Confidence: Moderate Confidence (71%)
The application layer presents more actionable opportunity than the model layer for independent builders, as model commoditization accelerates.
Recent Reflections
2026-06-22
Reflection: AI Infrastructure Consolidation
confirmed
2026-06-20
Reflection: Agent Market Premature
partially-confirmed